Analysis of Mass Shootings and Gun Ownership in the United States
Overview
As of July, there had been 372 mass shooting in 2022 and the US had not gone a single week without a mass shooting. To achieve any improvement, we have to better understand what contributes to mass shooting. My analysis project focused on two research questions:
1. Is there a relationship between gun ownership and gun violence in the United States?
2. What parts of the United States have been most afflicted with mass shootings?
To begin this analysis, I began my work with two datasets. The first one was historical data of mass shootings from 1920 to 2022 with a full breakdown of casualties, year, and description. The second data set looked at registered firearms by state in 2019 and 2021.
Analysis
Mass Shootings
Before we begin , we need to clarify what qualifies as a mass shooting. It's defined as incidents of public firearm violence that claim at least four victims. As we can see from the graph below, there has been a 41,975% increase in mass shootings over the last 100 years.
There has been a steady increase in casualties from 1920 to 2000 in the United States. From 2000 to present, we see a sharp increase, with casualties rising by 1,051% from 2000 to 2010. Since 2010, we have seen a 60% increase in gun violence in the United States.
While we may think everyone shot is killed, the data shows that , individuals were 100 times more likely to be injured versus killed in a mass shooting. On average, there are four people injured for every person killed.
The data showed that the cities with the highest number of mass shooting casualties are Chicago, Paradise (NV), and Philadelphia. The states with the highest number of casualties are California, Illinois, and Texas.
Gun Ownership
While the number of registered firearms is not all that high for a country of over 300 million people, It's important to note that these numbers reflect not just legal but registered firearms. As of 2019, seven states and the District of Columbia require the registration of firearms under law. In 2019, there were 5,201,947 registered firearms in the U.S., and that number increased to 7,511,303 in 2021. However, the actual number of firearms is much higher with estimates of 393 million.
Overall, southern states have more federal registered firearms compared to the Northeast. Only two states showed a decrease in registered firearms from 2019 to 2021: Connecticut (-9.13%) and Illinois (-1.18%). The three states with the highest increase are South Dakota (206%), North Dakota (133.3%), and Mississippi (127.3%).
The Federal Assault Weapons Ban lasted from 1994 to 2004. . Mass shootings were 70% less likely to occur during the ban compared to present day. Some of the deadliest mass shootings in US history have occurred in our lifetime.
Conclusions
Overall, there appears to be a relationship between number of firearms and risk of gun violence by state.The states with a higher number of registered firearms generally have a higher number of gun violence casualties.
Future Work
- Accessing earlier records for firearm ownership
- Additional data on shooter demographics (age, gender, race, income, etc.)
- Further breakdown mass shooting incidents, looking at political party of state leadership
References
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/rprkh15/history-of-mass-shootings-in-the-usa
https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-owners-percentage-of-state-populations-3325153
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/gun-ownership-rates-by-state/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Assault_Weapons_Ban
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