Is Trump Right? Do People feel less safe now than in “olden” days?

Posted on Oct 24, 2016

The Trump Campaign and the Hillary Campaign fight over the facts about crime rates, with Trump insisting that people are less safe now than they used to be. Do Americans feel safer or less safe compared to decades ago? Every person has his own feeling and answer, but here let us visualize the data from the FBI to see whether people are safer or not.

Hillary Campaign: We are living in the safest time!


Looking at crime statistics (right) since 1992, the number of total crime has continued to drop for two decades. It fell both under Democratic presidents and during George W. Bush’s terms.

We must say We are living in the safest time since 1990s.

Trump Campaign: After 2012 the country fall in danger!

Imagine two scenarios:

  1.  one thief steals a passenger's smartphone on the subway.
  2.  one passenger is murdered on the subway. figure1-us-feeing-unsafe-now

Both crime cases were counted as one, but which one would make you feel  more unsafe? Of course, the answer is murder.

In the right bar chart: the violent crime statistics tell you Donald Trump’s feeling is the truth. After 2012, President Obama's 2nd term, the number of murder and rape victims went up every year at an increasing rate.

The fact is the number of violent crime have risen since 2012.

Trump Campaign: Violent Ratio is approaching an historical peak!


If you can't understand “what a disaster” it is right now, left is the US Crime segmentation analysis.

Comparing the violent crime ratio with the property crime ratio, the ratio of violent crime is approaching the historical peak, meaning the highest probability to be a victim of violent crime since 1994.  Meanwhile, given recent trends, it would appear as though we are at risk of exceeding the peak in the near future.

Trump Campaign: The US, not Trump, has become more dangerous to women!


In the US, the percentage of women who were victims of violence has grown in the past 60 years. But in the past 8 years, the ratio of rape in the crime segmentation doubled as much as in the past 20 years. How dangerous is this for women?

In the past 30 years, the possibility  that a woman would be the victim of a rape has  doubled!!  However, this recent increase in the data could be from more women coming forward and reporting rape.

Hillary Campaign:Only Democrats fight against violent crime!


From the historical data of the past few decades, you can find that Democratic presidents have been more successful against the violent crime. In the past 24 years, one of the democrats’ achievements is that the violent crime was cut by almost 40%.

Hillary Campaign:Republican NEVER make US safer!

The Hillary campaign claims that whenever a Republican ruled the US, they ruined the country and the murder and robbery rates increased insanely.  Does the US actually not get any safer under Republicans?

figure3_1-republican-make-us-safer figure3_2-republican_robbery

What do you think the most relevant facts are ?

In the end, as it turns out, both Hilary and Donald are right.  In the past 3 years the total crime numbers are under control, but the violent crime stands out as on an escalating trend. This is why  many people claim to feel more unsafe now.  

About Author



He got his PhD degree in Physics from City University of New York in 2013, and recently completed his post doctoral projects funded by CDMRP (Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs, Department of Defense) and US Department of Energy,...
View all posts by leizhang >

Leave a Comment

No comments found.

View Posts by Categories

Our Recent Popular Posts

View Posts by Tags

#python #trainwithnycdsa 2019 airbnb Alex Baransky alumni Alumni Interview Alumni Reviews Alumni Spotlight alumni story Alumnus API Application artist aws beautiful soup Best Bootcamp Best Data Science 2019 Best Data Science Bootcamp Best Data Science Bootcamp 2020 Best Ranked Big Data Book Launch Book-Signing bootcamp Bootcamp Alumni Bootcamp Prep Bundles California Cancer Research capstone Career Career Day citibike clustering Coding Course Demo Course Report D3.js data Data Analyst data science Data Science Academy Data Science Bootcamp Data science jobs Data Science Reviews Data Scientist Data Scientist Jobs data visualization Deep Learning Demo Day Discount dplyr employer networking feature engineering Finance Financial Data Science Flask gbm Get Hired ggplot2 googleVis Hadoop higgs boson Hiring hiring partner events Hiring Partners Industry Experts Instructor Blog Instructor Interview Job Job Placement Jobs Jon Krohn JP Morgan Chase Kaggle Kickstarter lasso regression Lead Data Scienctist Lead Data Scientist leaflet linear regression Logistic Regression machine learning Maps matplotlib Medical Research Meet the team meetup Networking neural network Neural networks New Courses nlp NYC NYC Data Science nyc data science academy NYC Open Data NYCDSA NYCDSA Alumni Online Online Bootcamp Online Training Open Data painter pandas Part-time Portfolio Development prediction Prework Programming PwC python Python Data Analysis python machine learning python scrapy python web scraping python webscraping Python Workshop R R language R Programming R Shiny r studio R Visualization R Workshop R-bloggers random forest Ranking recommendation recommendation system regression Remote remote data science bootcamp Scrapy scrapy visualization seaborn Selenium sentiment analysis Shiny Shiny Dashboard Spark Special Special Summer Sports statistics streaming Student Interview Student Showcase SVM Switchup Tableau team TensorFlow Testimonial tf-idf Top Data Science Bootcamp twitter visualization web scraping Weekend Course What to expect word cloud word2vec XGBoost yelp