Is Trump Right? Do People feel less safe now than in “olden” days?

leizhang
Posted on Oct 24, 2016

The Trump Campaign and the Hillary Campaign fight over the facts about crime rates, with Trump insisting that people are less safe now than they used to be. Do Americans feel safer or less safe compared to decades ago? Every person has his own feeling and answer, but here let us visualize the data from the FBI to see whether people are safer or not.

dem_2016_debate-0d424Hillary Campaign: We are living in the safest time!

figure1-safest-time-since-1992

Looking at crime statistics (right) since 1992, the number of total crime has continued to drop for two decades. It fell both under Democratic presidents and during George W. Bush’s terms.

We must say We are living in the safest time since 1990s.

 


during the Presidential Debate at Hofstra University on September 26, 2016 in Hempstead, New York. The first of four debates for the 2016 Election, three Presidential and one Vice Presidential, is moderated by NBC's Lester Holt.Trump Campaign: After 2012 the country fall in danger!

Imagine two scenarios:

  1.  one thief steals a passenger's smartphone on the subway.
  2.  one passenger is murdered on the subway. figure1-us-feeing-unsafe-now

Both crime cases were counted as one, but which one would make you feel  more unsafe? Of course, the answer is murder.

In the right bar chart: the violent crime statistics tell you Donald Trump’s feeling is the truth. After 2012, President Obama's 2nd term, the number of murder and rape victims went up every year at an increasing rate.

The fact is the number of violent crime have risen since 2012.

 

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during the presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Monday, Sept. 26, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)  Trump Campaign: Violent Ratio is approaching an historical peak!

 

 

 

figure3_us-crime-segmentation

If you can't understand “what a disaster” it is right now, left is the US Crime segmentation analysis.

Comparing the violent crime ratio with the property crime ratio, the ratio of violent crime is approaching the historical peak, meaning the highest probability to be a victim of violent crime since 1994.  Meanwhile, given recent trends, it would appear as though we are at risk of exceeding the peak in the near future.

 

 

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during the prime time Republican presidential primary debate on August 6, 2015 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. AFP PHOTO/MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)  Trump Campaign: The US, not Trump, has become more dangerous to women!

 

 

figure4crime-more-and-more-against-women

In the US, the percentage of women who were victims of violence has grown in the past 60 years. But in the past 8 years, the ratio of rape in the crime segmentation doubled as much as in the past 20 years. How dangerous is this for women?

In the past 30 years, the possibility  that a woman would be the victim of a rape has  doubled!!  However, this recent increase in the data could be from more women coming forward and reporting rape.

 


hillary2Hillary Campaign:Only Democrats fight against violent crime!

figure2-who-fight-against-violent

 

 

From the historical data of the past few decades, you can find that Democratic presidents have been more successful against the violent crime. In the past 24 years, one of the democrats’ achievements is that the violent crime was cut by almost 40%.

 

 

hillary3Hillary Campaign:Republican NEVER make US safer!

The Hillary campaign claims that whenever a Republican ruled the US, they ruined the country and the murder and robbery rates increased insanely.  Does the US actually not get any safer under Republicans?

 

 

figure3_1-republican-make-us-safer figure3_2-republican_robbery

What do you think the most relevant facts are ?

In the end, as it turns out, both Hilary and Donald are right.  In the past 3 years the total crime numbers are under control, but the violent crime stands out as on an escalating trend. This is why  many people claim to feel more unsafe now.  

 

About Author

leizhang

leizhang

He got his PhD degree in Physics from City University of New York in 2013, and recently completed his post doctoral projects funded by CDMRP (Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs, Department of Defense) and US Department of Energy,...
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