Scraping StockX: Adidas Yeezy Resell Analysis
The advancement in technology in the last decade has led to a huge increase in both the number of exposure sneakers get through various social media platforms as well as accessibility of shoppers to find and purchase sneakers. As a result, sneaker culture has reached explosive growth and popularity. According to a study conducted by Campless, reselling sneakers is estimated to be a $1 Billion industry as of 2014 a number that has grown exponentially in the last few years.
So what is the sneaker resell market? The premise for sneaker reselling is quite simple. Sneakers are first released in the primary or retail market. This refers to the mass release of sneaker models to the general public through major sneaker retailers such as Footlocker, Finishline, Adidas Stores, Nike stores, etc for retail price. For many popular sneakers, the entire inventory sells out almost immediately, and many shoppers are left wanting sneakers that are no longer available in stores. This has led to the growth of secondary or resell markets where individual sellers who were able to purchase highly coveted sneakers in the primary market can list their sneakers for sale to buyers who are now willing to pay a premium to acquire rare sneakers sold out everywhere else. Some important names in sneaker resell include, FlightClub, StockX, GOAT, Stadium Goods, Ebay, etc.
Topic Of Focus: Adidas Yeezy Sneakers
The list of brands and styles available for purchase in resell markets is unending. For this project, I will focus on the infamous Adidas Yeezy sneaker line created by musician Kanye West, which has quickly become the most recognizable and highly sought after sneakers in the world. After a controversial and abrupt end to his partnership with Nike, Kanye immediately signed with Adidas and his impact was felt immediately. In February 2015, Adidas released it's first Kanye sneaker, the Yeezy 750, which sold out in a matter of seconds. In the first 12 months since the launch of the first Yeezy sneaker, Adidas is estimated to have increased its total revenue by a whopping $2B. In addition, Adidas’s stock price has gone from $63.2 before the launch of Yeezy line to $147.50 as of early 2017, a whopping 133% increase in value.
Overview of Adidas Yeezy Line
- Total Models : 8
- Total Styles: 31 (Including individual colorways of models)
- Total Sales as of Oct 2017 : 51,460 pairs of sneakers
- Avg. Resell Price: $1,103
- Avg. Percent Above Retail Price: +366%
- Highest Price Reached: $6,000 (+2,456% above retail price)
Acquiring The Data
Stockx.com, one of the most popular sneaker resell marketplaces, was scraped using Scrapy and Selenium to acquire historical selling data of all Yeezy sneakers.
Summary of Data:
- Retail Price
- Release Date
- Resell Price
- Resell Date
- Resell Month
- Resell Day
- Resell Percentage
Sample sneaker pages on stockx.com
Resold Sneakers By Model
Looking at the distribution of Yeezy models being resold, over 88% of all the Yeezy sneakers resold are either the 350 V2 model or the Powerphase model. It is worthy of note that both these models were released relatively recently (350 V2- September 2016, Powerphase-March 2017). So how can we explain the dominance of these newer models? The best explanation is that the early models of the Adidas Yeezy line were more or less trial runs for Adidas and the sneakers were released with very limited inventory. As the Yeezy collaboration became extremely popular, Adidas began to manufacture much larger quantities of the later models which meant much more pairs of sneakers were available for resell.
Top 10 Yeezy Styles
350 V2 Cream Powerphase White
When examining the most popular individual styles that are resold, 350 V2 Cream comes in at number one and nearly doubles the next best-seling Powerphase White (Both pictured above). Upon first glance, one might assume white colored sneakers are most popular in the resell market, but perhaps a stronger argument can be made for the effect of price as a predictor of resell popularity. Shown below, the average price of the 350 V2 Cream is nearly half of the total average of all Yeezy styles and the Powerphase White is less than quarter of that price.
- Avg. Cream Yeezy 350 V2: $536
- Avg. Yeezy Powerphase: $233
- Avg. of All Yeezy Sneakers: $1,103
Trends in Resell Prices
Looking at boxplot visualization of resell prices, each individual style seems to have an established price range, denoted by the edges of the box. But across the board, we see outliers of buyers willing to pay well above the median price points for Yeezy sneakers.
Resell Trends By Color
So how influential is color on resell price? Below is a chart showing average resell prices by color. As discussed White colorways resell for a significantly lower price and grey colorways resell for almost $1000 more than white colorways!
Resell Trends By Size
The table on top show units sold vs shoe size. We can see full sizes, especially 9,10, and 11 are the most commonly sold sizes on resell platforms. An interesting observation is the larger sizes (14 and above) are extremely rare on resell markets. A good followup question is does rarity of size available affect prices? The second chart directly below shows resell price vs shoe size. We are able to see that there is a slight increase in resell price for certain sizes above 14. But for sizes 9,10, and 11 (the most common sizes), resell prices are actually higher, and we can conclude availability of sizes does not have a consistent effect on resell price.
Resell Trends By Day of the Week
The graph above shows that significantly less sneakers are sold on weekends than on weekdays. The graph directly underneath shows that as the week goes by, the average resell price increases in almost a linear fashion. The best explanation for what is occurring in both charts is that the largest number of sneakers is available at the beginning of the week. For example, on Monday, 3 different sellers may have posted the same size 9 Powerphase White sneakers for sale all at differing pricepoints, i.e. $100, $120, $140. The early buyers have access to all three options and most likely will pick the cheapest option at $100. As the week goes by there are two options left and the next buyer chooses the second cheapest option at $120. Finally, near the end of the week, late buyers only have the $140 option which leads to buyers avoiding purchasing at the most expensive price (as shown by the large drop off in shoes sold on weekends) or if they do purchase, it will be at a higher price point ( the resell prices are noticeably higher on weekends).
Yeezy Prices Over Time
Plotting average price of the entire Yeezy line over time, we see a decline since the launch of the very first Yeezy sneaker. Could it be that the extremely popular Yeezy line is finally leveling off and the overall value of Yeezy sneakers are depreciating?
In order to help determine if Yeezy sneakers are depreciating in value, I plotted prices of individual Yeezy styles over time. We can see that although prices fluctuate, the overall trend follows a horizontal pattern over time. What is happening is that for individual styles, prices are being maintained but the newer styles have lower resell prices, bringing down the average resell price of the entire Yeezy collection.
- Will get most return from either really large sizes or the most common sizes 9, 10, 11.
- Gray color sneakers sell at highest pricepoint.
- Any 750 model will make you rich.
- Shop earlier during the week!
- Easiest to find 9,10,11 sizes.
- White colors are most affordable.
Opportunities For The Future
- Analyze larger scope of brands and models (i.e. Jordans, Nikes, etc)
- Deep dive into the productivity and growth of each sneaker resell marketplace (StockX vs. Ebay vs Flightclub vs GOAT vs Stadium Goods)
- Apply machine learning techniques to predict resell prices for upcoming Yeezy sneaker releases. (pictured below)